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Dubai Needs Management Change

Andrew Critchlow wrote in The Wall Street Journal that Dubai needs changes at the top if it is to overcome its $80 billion debt.  Dubai World ran about $60 billion of liabilities acquiring struggling retailer Barneys and the Queen Elizabeth II liner.

Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank has about half of its loan book tied to Dubai

Senior management remains in place, including Sultan bin Sulayem, the chairman who masterminded the expansion.

Holding senior Emirati officials responsible will be challenging. The Sulayem family has close ties to Dubai's ruling Maktoums. Mr. Sulayem's father was a key adviser to the family.

Western lenders want to see experienced executives running Dubai's companies being held accountable by independent boards and creditors.

Easy credit allowed officials like Mr. Sulayem to build Dubai World into a truly international company. In the future, banks will demand greater transparency in return for capital.

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Filed under  //   Dubai   Dubai World   Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum   Sultan bin Sulayem  

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Dubai: The Story of the World’s Fastest City

The city of Dubai in the last 50 years has become the vision of the city of the future. In Dubai: The Story of the World’s Fastest City, Jim Krane offers a serious study of Dubai along with Christopher Davidson’s Dubai: The Vulnerability of Success.

Dubai has become a city that has occupied the imagination of the international community. However, in the current world, Dubai is now struggling financially. Mr. Krane was struct by the idea that Dubai could be an economic model for the Middle East and what the country could achieve without the help of the U.S.

Mr. Krane does a superb job of assessing Dubai’s current ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.  Mr. Krane says that Dubai offers everyone a welcome regardless of ones nationality and faith.

Mr. Krane is entertained at the scale of Dubai’s ambition and taste from huge sky scrapers to man made islands for housing projects. Mr. Krane also writes about the condition of the workers from India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, who have helped build Dubai.

Dubai has Knowledge Village, which is a free zone for universities from around the world. There is also a growing arts scene in Al Quoz.

Dubai: The Story of the World’s Fastest City by Jim Krane
Atlantic Books, 320 pages, £17.99

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Filed under  //   Abu Dhabi   Dubai   Dubai: The Story of the World’s Fastest City   Jim Krane   Middle East   Qatar   Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum  

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Dubai Surviving with New Leadership

Dubai Gets Its Breathing Room by Chip Cummins and Margaret Coker

Two months after receiving a $10 billion lifeline, Dubai's government says it has disbursed more than half of that money to indebted companies, allowing them to pay off bills and refinance debt. The quick payouts have provided breathing room for a handful of government-controlled companies. Dubai also has recently stepped in to fill funding gaps for certain Dubai entities that were unable to refinance or pay off debt on their own.

This has reassured markets that Dubai, for the time being, can support its overstretched companies. The cost of insuring Dubai-related debt against default soared earlier this year but has fallen back again.

The city-state, however, is still straining under a short-term debt load. Dubai's real-estate market has dropped, and prospects are dim this year for tourism, transportation and financial sectors. That means persuading investors to lend more, or seeking more federal funds, is key to staving off a hard landing.

Dubai and its corporate entities have nearly $19 billion of debt coming due this year and next, according to investment bank EFG-Hermes. Unlike many Mideast neighbors, Dubai doesn't have much oil and has financed its growth by borrowing. Officials say they won't cut back on their ambitious infrastructure-building boom. Dubai announced at the start of the year a 42% boost in spending, saying it would risk a deficit and borrow to fund it, if need be.

In February 2009, Dubai announced a $20 billion bond program. The United Arab Emirates' central bank immediately bought up the first tranche of $10 billion. Dubai is one of seven emirates that make up the U.A.E., so the move was essentially a federal bailout.

Dubai officials have said the proceeds of that federal borrowing will go to meet debt obligations, both overseas and at home, of its corporate entities. Falling property sales for big developers has translated into unpaid bills owed to contractors and subcontractors. Nasser Al Shaikh, Dubai's director of finance, told a local radio station this week that a little more than half of the first $10 billion has already been distributed to companies, and Dubai will probably offer the next $10 billion in bonds by year's end.

It is unclear if the federal government will pony up for the bulk of those new bonds. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Al Shaikh said international investors have shown new interest in lending. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China took part in a refinancing earlier this month for Dubai's airport authority.

"We're even seeing more money coming in from other markets that haven't been there before," he said. "Pockets of liquidity more and more" are coming from the East, he said.

Despite the optimism, Dubai debt remains a tough sell since the cost of insuring it against default is relatively high, making refinancing in international markets expensive. Many big international banks, drawn by the recent oil boom to the Mideast and to Dubai in particular, already sit on big exposure to the place.

As Dubai gears up to court investors again, ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum appears to be relying on a new corps of lieutenants to spearhead a restructuring of government companies and get a handle on their debt.

Mr. Al Shaikh is among Dubai's rising stars. Another is Mohammed Al Shaibani, chief executive of Investment Corp. of Dubai, a holding company of many of Dubai's biggest corporate players. Their ascension comes at the expense of a handful of other, longtime officials and executives. Mr. Al Shaikh denies there's been a power shift, saying only that "different times require different formations."

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Filed under  //   Dubai   EFG-Hermes   Industrial & Commercial Bank of China   Investment Corp. of Dubai   Nasser Al Shaikh   Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum   United Arab Emirates  

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Dubai World's Plan to Save City Center Development

Dubai World, in an effort to save the troubled City Center development in Las Vegas and its relationship with co-investor MGM Mirage, is proposing the two and their lenders pledge billions still needed to complete the project, according to people familiar with the matter.

Work at the $8.6 billion resort and casino development is in danger of halting due to financing woes and a dispute between the joint owners. The proposal calls for Dubai World, MGM Mirage and lenders to commit a combined $3 billion.

City Center's fate has been in doubt in part because MGM Mirage's financial situation has worsened. Dubai World, a conglomerate led by Chairman Sultan Bin Sulayem and owned by the government of Dubai, is suing MGM Mirage for alleged mismanagement and cost overruns at the project. Last month, it skipped its half of a $200 million construction payment.

The proposal, if accepted, would increase financial pressure on MGM Mirage, which is laboring under $13.5 billion in debt. MGM Mirage could also need approval from its lenders to pledge the entire portion of its share of the funds.

An MGM Mirage spokesperson declined to discuss the proposal, saying, "We would not disrespect our partner by having discussions between us held in the media." A Dubai World spokesperson had no comment on the proposal, but said the conglomerate is "continuing to search for solutions to enable the completion of City Center."

Dubai World is worried that it could lose its $4.3 billion investment in City Center if MGM Mirage is forced into bankruptcy. Last month, MGM Mirage auditors expressed doubt about the company continuing as a "going concern."

Although details of the proposal were not immediately available, a full funding commitment from all parties would require that banks forego an earlier agreement to release a $1.8 billion loan only after MGM Mirage and Dubai World had put in more cash of their own. The arrangement would also preserve the project in event of a bankruptcy filing by MGM Mirage, controlled by billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian.

MGM Mirage recently won a waiver from its lenders allowing it to solely pay a $70 million City Center construction bill due Monday, according to a person with knowledge of the situation. The payment would keep work going and stave off a possible shut-down until the next deadline, at the end of this month.

City Center's potential collapse is the most prominent example of how the excesses of Las Vegas are now plaguing the casino industry, which took on billions of debt during boom times to fund expansion plans. City Center, built on 67 acres, includes three luxury hotels, two residential towers, public art from Claes Oldenburg and Maya Lin, its own mono-rail, theatre and fire station.

Just seven months ago, the City Center plan appeared to be on track. Executives from both companies gathered for a private dinner at the Bellagio on the Las Vegas Strip to celebrate a crucial financing that would help them complete the project. Cocktail waitresses wore clear plastic outfits with strategically placed tags noting the project's environmental certification, and female performers descended from the ceiling on wires, according to a person who attended.

But Dubai World's concerns about the project and MGM Mirage's troubles soon emerged. The price of steel had soared, and City Center's costs ballooned, Dubai World officials said in interviews earlier this month.

Dubai World officials said MGM Mirage managers chose the most expensive materials, even as the global economy tanked and Las Vegas tourism plummeted. An MGM Mirage official said Dubai World was "privy to" budgets and "approved them along the way."

Meanwhile, projections about the project's funding turned out to be too optimistic. The Las Vegas real-estate market collapsed and money which City Center had hoped to raise by pre-selling luxury condos fell short.

In March 2009, Dubai World officials flew to Las Vegas to meet with MGM Mirage officials and asked if the gambling company could continue to fund its share of the $200 million to $300 million monthly City Center construction tab. "We were given all sorts of comfort" by MGM Mirage executives, a Dubai World representative said.

MGM Mirage officials also wondered about Dubai World's ability to pay, as the global recession began to impact the emirate's economy. Dubai World had scaled back or delayed projects, including a new Trump Tower hotel it was building in Dubai.

A person close to MGM Mirage said the company asked Dubai World about its financial position and ability to keep funding City Center, and received "friendly but vague assurances."

Dubai World officials say they lobbied MGM Mirage to consider delaying or slowing construction on parts of City Center. But MGM Mirage argued against it. Dubai World said it was shocked when MGM Mirage in March filed its annual report to the Securities and Exchange Commission, revealing that the company was in dire straits.

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Filed under  //   City Center Project   Dubai   Dubai World   Kirk Kerkorian   MGM Mirage   Sultan Bin Sulayem  

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The New Dubai

Traffic is thinner, housing prices are in freefall, and hotels are more affordable. Schools that once furiously turned students away are suddenly welcoming, and snobbish sports clubs are unexpectedly friendly. This is the new Dubai, a city that, for the fortunate ones who are holding on to their jobs, now feels a lot more pleasant.

The gossip among expatriates, and they form the vast majority of the population, is about how the global financial crisis has arrested the city-state’s wild ride and driven some of their friends away. Even the most cynical residents admit Dubai is down but not out and that it will eventually make a comeback as a less exuberant and, above all, as a more liveable place.

It will take determination, however, to endure the economic downturn and to shift Dubai’s mindset from insatiable ambition for bigger and glitzier towers to more modest aspiration and cautious crisis management.

It took months for the government to admit the emirate had overleveraged and overextended itself as it rushed to build the Middle East’s leading business hub. Even today, Dubai remains obsessively keen to keep its problems out of the public eye.

Yet Dubai is also starting to act. It swallowed its pride and borrowed $10bn from the federal government of the United Arab Emirates, in effect, its richer neighbours in Abu Dhabi, to help refinance its debts and to assist government-affiliated companies to pay their bills.

And it has started to restructure and to consolidate its sprawling government-affiliated conglomerates, which had thrived on competing against each other, feeding the construction frenzy that has now ground to a halt, and leaving contractors fuming about unpaid bills.

The Dubai model was based on thinking big and accomplishing the impossible, but the city-state has been forced to scale back as projects are put on hold or scrapped.

In the short term, there is more pain in prospect. Everyone in the city is waiting for the end of the school year to see how many expatriates leave. The government claims there are still more people moving in than out but some banks forecast the population will shrink by as much as 17 per cent.

To limit the pain, Dubai will have to act even more vigorously on two fronts. First, it has still to convince the markets it is capable of engineering a fundamental restructuring. The emirate likes to be known as an outwardly, cosmopolitan city, but it has not come to terms with the responsibility alongside that, crucially, the need for transparency.

“We don’t have a problem about Dubai repaying its debts. Our question is: can they implement what they have to?” says a senior banker. “They’re not providing information and it’s a badly timed silence.”

Second, Dubai should find some way to allow expatriates who lose their jobs and therefore their residency visas to stay on in the city. Lay-offs leave residents in a legal limbo, if not actually a legal nightmare, and the jails are filling up with people accused of bouncing cheques, which is a criminal offence in the emirate.

The scale of the problem has even prompted Dubai’s police chief to call for a change in regulations.

“Dubai doesn’t have legal infrastructure. But now that contractors are not being paid, employees are being laid off [and consequently] Dubai as a financial centre faces a big test,” another banker points out. If these central problems were to be tackled, then Dubai could, as its officials are hoping, be among the first to rebound when the global economy recovers.

Dubai as the region’s main business centre remains viable. Even neighbours that secretly rejoice at its present distress will admit that.

Despite the misguided focus of recent years upon real estate, the economy has solid foundations. Dubai, after all, is the region’s main trading hub, with ports and airports unmatched in the Gulf. Tourism, too, will recover, and the emirate will probably remain the favourite finance base for the Middle East.

As one eminent businessman expresses it: “By [forming] a service economy, Dubai has become a clearing house for this part of the world, where suppliers of goods and services meet buyers.” The city-state will endure two bad years, he forecasts. But he concludes by insisting: “[Even as] a scaled-down version, it will still work.”

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Filed under  //   Abu Dhabi   Dubai   Middle East   Tourism   United Arab Emirates  

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Interview with Chief Executive of Ferragamo

Michele Norsa always carries an amber stone in his left-hand trouser pocket. The reason, says the chief executive of Italian fashion house Salvatore Ferragamo, is "to bring good luck, as I am superstitious".

A luxury goods executive might need fortune on his side these days as the industry navigates uncertain times. Richemont, owner of Cartier and Montblanc, warned this year that it saw "no cause for optimism" after reporting a steeper than anticipated 12 per cent fall in sales over the Christmas quarter.

Mr Norsa says the business environment has been getting worse by the month, especially in mature markets such as Japan and the US. Still, he believes Ferragamo is relatively well placed to weather the downturn. In large part this is bec-ause of an aggressive push into Asia's emerging markets, where it now has 30 per cent of its €700m (£648m) of annual sales. Including Japan, Asia accounts for half of all group sales.

Also, he argues, austerity will persuade consumers to shun "very trendy and very flashy brands" in favour of companies such as Ferragamo, which is steeped in the ethos of its Florentine founder and has a history of craftsmanship since the 1920s. "Classical brands probably fit better the current mood of the consumer," says the 60-year-old Italian, speaking at Ferragamo's new Hong Kong skyscraper office.

That said, the appointment of the jovial, cigar-smoking Mr Norsa in 2006 marks a break with the past. He joined Ferragamo from Valentino, another Italian fashion house which he had taken public and which has since fallen into private equity hands. As the first family outsider to head Ferragamo, his arrival was timed to instil greater professionalism ahead of a public listing. The credit crisis, however, has delayed such ambitions.

He insists it is too early to say whether he will eventually hand the baton back to a family member, but allows that tuition could be seen as part of his job. Two Ferragamo executives, James Ferragamo and Angelica Visconti, are third-generation family members.

Mr Norsa wrote his thesis at university in Milan on the textile industry, but then spent a decade in publishing before being headhunted in 1985 by the owners of Sergio Tacchini, the sports brand. He says book publishing and clothes have obvious similarities, "you work with products which are renewed every month" but admits that his switch to fashion was pragmatic.

"When you are a manager, money is also important at a certain point and there are proposals you cannot refuse," he says. With trademark candour, he adds that he does not rate himself as a very creative person, which has kept him at arm's length from Ferragamo's designers.

In spite of his optimism that classical brands will retain their allure, the outlook for 2009 is not bright. While Ferragamo added more than 40 stores last year, bringing the total to 550, expansion will slow to about 30 this year, including postponements of earlier plans in more established Asian markets such as Shanghai and Macao.

However, Asia's long-term growth prospects remain largely undimmed, Mr Norsa believes, especially in China "where opportunities in second- and third-tier cities are still quite important".

Overall, he argues, recession is an opportunity for his industry to simplify sales and purge the excesses of the boom years. Mr Norsa welcomes signs that "the industry is now really moving in the same direction"; he and his counterparts have "perhaps for the first time" been comparing notes on how to respond to a changing marketplace. He has plenty to say in that debate.

First, the sector should reduce the number of annual collections, which have multiplied at the request of American retailers and forced fashion houses into a permanent process of designing".

Second, marketing and advertising budgets should be shifted away from lavish media campaigns towards more in-store events that directly benefit shoppers. "We need to focus more on our consumers rather than the image of a brand which is already very established," he says.

Third, fashion houses should end their race to open ever-larger stores. "Most brands have been thinking about very, very large stores but we now realise that it's not always the size of the store that drives traffic," he says.

A final preoccupation is spending on the catwalk: "Companies have been investing heavily in fashion shows, which have become more and more costly and big," he says. "The luxury industry now has to rethink how to do business in a profitable way without wasting energy on sometimes useless expenses."

But while the days of top models in platinum-coated attire may be numbered, he is not panicking yet. Fashion buyers, he says, will not desert luxury brands but will instead spend less, but on the best.

Pointing to the recent rush of Japanese to South Korea to take advantage of the won's fall against the yen, he says: "People aren't really looking for cheaper items but they are now very interested in bargains and want to buy where the price is best."

Similarly, he predicts, brands that run their own outlets will suffer less than those that rely on department stores. Ferragamo directly operates half its stores. "The department store is definitely the place where you want to go when you have not yet decided what to buy.

More and more consumers, especially younger ones, now leave home already knowing where they want to go and what they want to buy and, of course, probably find a better service and offer in mono-brand stores."

A belief in sticking to a single brand does not imply a lack of ambition to diversify Ferragamo's product range, however. Mr Norsa is wearing a chunky titanium watch that is part of the group's first collection, launched last year, and which follows the development of a fragrance business and an eyewear joint venture with Luxottica.

Ferragamo is also making a foray into property, as interior designer for what is expected to be the world's highest residential building, the luxury Pentominium in Dubai. Meanwhile, Mr Norsa is eyeing a home furnishing collection.

In 2007, ahead of the planned listing, analysts valued Ferragamo at about €1bn. Mr Norsa declines to name a figure now, but insists the IPO preparations brought "more rigour, discipline and probably [operational] speed" to the company.

As he steers Ferragamo through stormy waters, he sees a silver lining to the IPO delay, especially for a debt-free company: "The family vision of a business is much more long term than that of private equity or public shareholders and it's definitely an advantage in tough market circumstances."

Michele Norsa leads a company that has a history of overcoming reversals in the financial markets.

Salvatore Ferragamo, having established himself in the 1920s as the favourite Italian shoemaker of Marlene Dietrich and an array of other Hollywood stars, mismanaged his American expansion. He was eventually forced into the hands of moneylenders and then bankrupted in the aftermath of the 1929 Wall Street crash.

The collapse left him determined to try afresh but with a different approach. "The bankruptcy had taken everything, but it could not take away my knowledge of shoes," Mr Ferragamo wrote in his autobiography.

One of his conclusions was that his long-term ambitions could not be reconciled with those of potential financiers. "The world of business, I now realised, was a vast confidence trick," he wrote.

"The job of a business was to make money and pay dividends to stockholders. I did not want to pay dividends until the business was properly established in the way I wanted it established . . . I would repay every penny claimed against me, and when I was again solvent I would never beg for outside capital. I would finance myself entirely."

Plans for a public listing notwithstanding, financial and managerial independence is nowadays a clear asset, Mr Norsa believes. "The family vision of a business is much more long term than that of private equity or public shareholders. It's definitely an advantage in tough market circumstances."

Source.

Filed under  //   Angelica Visconti   Cartier   Dubai   James Ferragamo   Luxottica   Michele Norsa   Montblanc   Pentominium   Richemont   Salvatore Ferragamo   Valentino  

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Dubai Not Dead

Dubai must feel a little like Mark Twain, these days. Upon reading his own obituary in the newspaper, Twain wrote: “The report of my death was an exaggeration.” Dubai has had its share of obituaries as it suffers from a property bust and contagion from the global credit crisis. Headlines from Cairo to London to New York, laced with schadenfreude, proclaim its demise. Newsweek said simply: “Goodbye, Dubai.”

The emirate is certainly stumbling. Many of its state-owned entities drown in debt. Several high-profile property projects have wilted under tight credit, debt and corruption. Its stock market has been in free-fall. Many of its top officials, who once swaggered on the world stage, now skulk in denial.

Still, news of Dubai’s death has been greatly exaggerated. Its fundamentals as a regional hub of shipping, services, people, trade and capital have not changed. “Disneyland Dubai has crashed,” as one Dubai-based banker put it, referring to headline-grabbing property projects, “but the core business model of Dubai remains sound.”

That business model predates modern financial markets and the hyper-globalisation of today. It is not about lavish hotels, skyscrapers and man-made islands in the sea.

It is a simple model, reflected in the statement of Sheikh Rashid bin Saeed al-Maktoum, the late ruler of Dubai: “What’s good for the merchants is good for Dubai.”

Creating a hub for merchants has been an al-Maktoum family tradition for more than a century. And it is those merchants and migrants, dreamers and entrepreneurs, who built Dubai, who deserve equal credit for its rise and who will help it grow again.

This openness to foreign talent will support Dubai as it faces today’s crisis. Speculators will leave but plenty will ride out the storm, including Arab professionals who have chosen Dubai as the place to achieve their dreams and middle-class Indian mid-level managers who make the city work.

To understand why Dubai will survive, it is important to understand its commercial geography. It is not solely an Arab state, demographically or commercially. It is a commercial and tourist hub for a region that encompasses the growing markets of south Asia, emerging Africa, oil-rich Russia and the Gulf states, Iran, central Asia and the Caucasus, Europe and China.

Dubai works largely because of the heavy infrastructure investment made by Dubai’s rulers and the expatriate traders, service professionals, construction workers, bankers and techies who make up 90 per cent of the population.

Dubai was never, as one newspaper called it, “The Middle East’s economic powerhouse.” Rather, it was and remains a highly successful entrepôt in one of the richest and fastest-growing parts of the world. Like most entrepôts, it feeds from and fuels growth. Dubai companies, for example, have substantively improved east Africa’s transport infrastructure and DP World manages ports in 49 countries.

Though Dubai is racked by debt, $70bn of it, much of that comes from massive infrastructure projects that have positioned it well for the future. Infrastructure spending is old hat in Dubai. When Sheikh Rashid built the Jebel Ali port in 1979, to much criticism, he made a big bet and won.

Today, Jebel Ali helps place Dubai among the 10 largest container terminal port cities in the world. When Sheikh Rashid chose to take on a big loan in the late 1950s to dredge the Dubai creek to allow for larger ships, he was panned. It worked. The ships came, and so did the merchants. The pre-oil emirate grew and flourished.

The same can be said of its airports, airlines, telecommunications and broadband networks, metro system and expanded highways. There is no city within striking distance of challenging Dubai as a hub in a region that extends beyond the Arab world to 1.5bn people. Its airport is among the 10 busiest for international passenger traffic. It is also among the world’s top 15 air cargo hubs.

Dubai’s property bubble popped. Its hubris also popped. Its core business model, however, did not. Property corrections and over-leveraged state entities can be fixed. Becoming a poor environment for trade would be far more dangerous.

When the world growth engine restarts, city-states such as Dubai will flourish. In the meantime, Dubai will serve as a vital, if somewhat clogged, artery in world trade. The battered but still battling hub city will rise again.

Source.

Filed under  //   Disneyland Dubai   DP World   Duba   Dubai   Emirates   Goodbye   Jebel Ali   Middle East   Sheikh Rashid bin Saeed al-Maktoum  

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Interview with Anna Wintour

When the editor of Vogue rails against consumerism, the economy must be in a tailspin. Before she headed to the New York runway shows, fashion kingmaker Anna Wintour—dressed in taupe Manolo Blahnik boots, a Carolina Herrera sheath dress, and a tweed coat with a large fur collar draped over her shoulders—sat down in her office, with a perfect fresh bouquet on the desk, at Condé Nast's midtown Manhattan headquarters and discussed why "value" is in and "too Dubai" is out.

WSJ: If fashion is a barometer of the prevailing mood, what can we expect to see for fall 2009?

Ms. Wintour: It is so important for designers not to run scared, and not to be too worried about what's safe and what's commercial.

Right now, what's going to work is something their customer doesn't have in her closet and that has a real intrinsic sense of value. …Because to be honest there's been too much product, too much copy-catting, and, probably too much consumerism. I think a sense of clarity, a sense leveling off and a sense of reality is needed.

So people want to look understated?

Yes, I don't think anyone is going to want to look overly flashy, overly glitzy, too Dubai, whatever you want to call it. I just don't think that's the moment. But I do feel an emphasis on quality and longevity and things that really last.

This morning I went to see Ralph Lauren, who designed a tiny but superb collection of watches. You can look at those watches, you can see if you buy one you will have it for the rest of your life.

During the boom, were people buying too much stuff?

I think it was excessive, and there's a very correct correction going on.

When do you think the consumer will be confident enough to shop like she used to?

I don't think she's is going to shop the way she used to in the immediate future.

Will she ever?

I am not saying never. Who would ever say never? That would be ridiculous. I think what she buys is going to give her more pleasure because it's going to last longer, mean more.

Are you trying to add more moderately priced clothes to fashion spreads?

I think we need to give women the aspirational clothes that can make them dream, and another portfolio that's about mixing high and low, certainly the way the First Lady is dressing. It's about a mix. …In the Index pages we are looking more rigorously at price and value and asking, 'is something worth that particular price tag?'

A thing that wasn't worth it? Without naming names, we had a little sequined thing that wouldn't come down to here on you [points to chest.] And I said, 'How much is it?' $25,000. I said, 'No. We're not going to photograph that right now.'

How is Michelle Obama and the Obama administration affecting the fashion mood right now?

Hopefully, the bailout package will have a positive effect on the economy, although it would be ridiculous to think it's going to have an instantaneous effect. Previous First Ladies seemed to feel the need to wear a sort of uniform, whereas Michelle Obama likes fashion and is very comfortable in fashion. She's happy to mix high and low, and she loves emerging designers. That will do nothing but good for our industry.

Are you personally inspired by the way the First Lady dresses?

She wears clothes beautifully. They always look like they belong to her. It's extraordinarily refreshing, and it's empowering for women all over the world. I think what's different about this administration -- and I am talking strictly about fashion here -- is that they really enjoy it. Working with other brilliant people in Washington previously, I felt they've been nervous about clothes, about being criticized and not taken seriously. Washington has been very conservative. But I think now we have a beautiful and brilliant First Lady who loves clothes and enjoys them, and she is going to send that message to women all over America -- they can wear beautiful clothes and still be taken seriously.

By creating the CFDA/Vogue Fashion Fund, you've helped fund and mentor young American designers. How can you support young designers in such a challenging environment?

My editors and staff have to be out there in the next 10 days. We have to be very visible, very supportive. …[For designers,] keeping collections extremely focused while maintaining quality is also important. Making everything suddenly inexpensive is not the right way to go.

I have to say how incredibly generous the industry is -- how supportive of young talent. It's an incredibly impressive group: Patrick Robinson, Kate and Andy Spade, Andrew Rosen, Reed Krakoff, Diane [von Furstenberg, president of the Council of Fashion Designers of America]. Even the beauty industry, they really do believe in giving back. None of them are stepping back at this time, which I think is remarkable.

If many of the most successful emerging designers are still struggling, what do you tell all the fashion students who want to be just like them?

It's important for young women and men coming out of the fashion schools to think seriously before starting their own collections. Anyone who wants to be a designer and thinks they're going to be the next Calvin [Klein], Ralph [Lauren], or Michael [Kors] is not realistic. It is much more helpful for them to go and study with an Oscar [de la Renta] or a Carolina [Herrera] -- someone who can teach them.

Many well-known designers have recently created cheap-chic lines for stores such as H&M and Target. Why don't they just license their own low-end labels? Do you think they've ceded ground to some of the purveyors of fast fashion?

I am sure that the checks from Target, and the exposure, are very helpful. I don't agree that [they lost ground to cheap-chic retailers]. If it's the right fit, [I encourage it] absolutely. One of the collaborations we do through the Fashion Fund is with the Gap [wherein the winners design their own twist on the classic white shirt]. Gap takes the designers all over the world, and photographs them with young models wearing the shirts. And the shirts are fabulous.

Source.

Filed under  //   Anna Wintour   CFDA/Vogue Fashion Fund   Condé Nast   Council of Fashion Designers of America   Dubai   Fashion   Michelle Obama   Obama   Ralph Lauren   Vogue  

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What's the Next Wallstreet Magazine?

Wall Street has shown its former masters of the universe the door. Once-bustling trading desks now resemble ghost towns, swept clean of the brash phone-throwing, Chinese food-quaffing traders whose soured bets brought firms low.

Publishers who catered to them have lost a lucrative audience and some, like New York-based Doubledown Media, purveyor of Trader Monthly and other financial lad mags, have been forced to close shop. But inventive publishers can still aspire to reach Wall Street’s next big spenders.

Trader Monthly’s claim to fame was its annual ranking of Wall Street’s biggest earners. In 2007, 33-year-old John Arnold topped the list, pulling in a cool $2 billion. Doubledown tapped other big spenders with titles like Dealmaker – for investment bankers – Private Air and the Cigar Report. Luxury advertisers saw its readership as a rich vein to mine during the boom years.

But the financial sector’s bloodletting changed the equation. Doubledown lost $3m in 2008, as sales in its all-important fourth quarter – which typically accounted for 40% of its revenues – ground to a halt. Stories about the latest Bombardier jets, condos in the Caribbean and old vintages of Pétrus suddenly didn’t find a receptive audience.

Doubledown’s demise was due to its placing all its chips on a vulnerable demographic – one with massive, but exceptionally vulnerable, discretionary income. Its sense of timing didn’t help either – the company recently expanded its operations to Dubai.

But the brave few willing to remain in the lion’s den of financial publishing should not lose all hope. There may no longer be well-heeled 20-somethings snapping up Maybachs and Patek Philippes, but the financial pecking order is ever-changing. Just imagine the potential audience for “Tarp Lobbyist” or “Bankruptcy Advisor”. And don’t forget about “Tag Sale Dealmaker”. Everyone loves a bargain.

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Filed under  //   Doubledown   Dubai   John Arnold   Trader Monthly   Wall Street  

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The Dubai Meltdown

At the height of Dubai’s recent boom, thousands of foreigners were arriving every day to seek their fortunes in this Gulf city of boundless ambition. Now, vehicles in the car park outside the airport gather dust as redundant expatriates abandon their wheels, fleeing home before they default on automotive loans and risk imprisonment.

Officials in the emirate were until the last few months unruffled by the credit crisis and a dramatic fall in oil prices, arguing that the services-led economy had not been affected. Indeed, they maintained, it would provide a safe haven for bankers and western companies suffering from the global downturn. Dubai’s six-year boom, which rode the regional petrodollar wave, was fuelled by the city’s infrastructure and quality of life rather than by oil itself, of which the emirate has little. But the very openness of an economy built on finance and property investment now leaves it ill-placed to weather the storms raging elsewhere.

Amid a collapse of business and consumer confidence (see chart), financial and property companies have been shedding thousands of workers. The once steady stream of British tourists is also drying up as recession bites in the UK and sterling collapses against the dollar-pegged dirham.

The United Arab Emirates, of which Dubai is part, had to support the banking system with a Dh120bn ($33bn, £24bn, €25bn) package and bail out Dubai’s two mortgage providers as the city’s property bubble burst. Credit default spreads on the emirate’s debt have since ballooned on worries that it might not be able to repay creditors without the help of the UAE’s capital, oil-rich Abu Dhabi.

Bad headlines such as these are not part of the Dubai script of perennial growth. In response, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the emirate’s ruler, has formed an advisory council to steer Dubai through its greatest challenge since the Gulf was plunged into its own 1930s depression when the pearling industry collapsed.

Mohammed Alabbar, the charismatic chairman of Emaar Properties, a local developer, was chosen to chair the nine-man body. Unlike some of the relative youths who run the vast commercial enterprises linked to the government and collectively dubbed “Dubai Inc”, Mr Alabbar has lived through other crises: he made his name turning around the fortunes of a Dubai business that went bust after the 1980s Asian property bubble. “We are going to tighten our belts, roll over and pay off debt, and be really trim over the next year,” he says.

Sheikh Mohammed for years encouraged his top lieutenants to compete against each other to create the biggest and best developments. Such competition quickened the city’s growth but it also encouraged increasingly grandiose projects founded on debt. As bullish growth scenarios began to confuse unusually loose credit conditions with a new paradigm in global finance, Dubai was seen as a crucial staging post in the shift in economic power from the west to emerging Asia.

Now, these officials are working together on the same committee to prevent the global slowdown leading to a Dubai meltdown. “We are now sitting together for the first time in a long time,” says Nasser al-Shaikh, director-general of the department of finance and another advisory council member.

Mr Shaikh says ambitious growth targets of 11 per cent a year until 2015 have been reined back to 4-6 per cent. The government is also planning a fiscal stimulus that will increase government spending by 42 per cent this year. But by the time the council went public with its findings in November, the rapid deceleration had given rise to speculation that Abu Dhabi, the richest member of the UAE, might have to bail out its flashier neighbour. Rumours spread that Abu Dhabi would only stump up the cash if Dubai ceded control of its successful airline, Emirates.

Federal support has come through folding Dubai’s troubled mortgage companies into well-capitalised Abu Dhabi banks. There have been other direct discussions between Dubai and Abu Dhabi state companies, although none has reached agreement.

Sheikh Mohammed’s Dubai International Capital fund, whose assets have shrunk sharply, briefly courted investment from Mubadala, the Abu Dhabi investment arm. No substantive discussions ensued, people close to the matter say, but the incident fuelled rumours of a bail-out. Well before the credit crisis raised questions about Dubai’s solvency, Mubadala and Dubai Aluminium had been discussing equity restructuring of their joint venture, Emirates Aluminium, a vast smelter on the Abu Dhabi/Dubai border.

Dubai officials insist they will handle their own problems, only seeking federal support as a last resort. The most pressing issue for the emirate’s reputation is restructuring its $80bn debt, around one-quarter of which is estimated to be maturing this year. Moody’s has raised concerns that Dubai’s high debt, at more than 100 per cent of annual gross domestic product, could force it to seek support from Abu Dhabi. Fitch, meanwhile, has downgraded the debt of rated state-linked companies in the emirate.

State-linked companies have already paid off more than $2bn in outstanding debt. The next big refinancing, Borse Dubai’s $4bn loan, should provide an insight into the emirate’s risk profile among international creditors.

The government also believes it has been understating GDP, making its debt levels look more burdensome than they are. A new 2007 figure of $70bn-$80bn will soon be announced as the statistical department upgrades 1980s methodology responsible for the current figure of about $50bn for 2006.

Bankers worry that the government remains in denial about the depth of its problems, given the slowdown facing its services economy and the closure of international financial markets. “Dubai is still just trying to market its way out of this huge hole,” says one.

Dubai’s property market, once a favourite destination of foreign investors, is in need of financial surgery as developers face a collapse in sales amid dire investor sentiment and banks shy away from providing mortgages. Prices fell 23 per cent between the third and fourth quarters of last year, according to HSBC’s index covering mortgage issuance – although anecdotal evidence suggests some distressed properties are selling at about half pre-summer peaks.

Officials say that projects not yet sold to the public – as much as half all announced developments – will be shelved until market conditions improve. The government is also considering helping developers who are finding it hard to complete projects. But more building sites are falling silent as funds dry up, despite Mr Shaikh’s assurances that government will not allow the city’s skyline to be marred by half-built structures.

The authorities have yet to reveal a plan for financing the property sector, having assumed that deposit injections into the country’s banks last year will be enough to revive lending. The government estimates that, at most, 34,000 units will enter the market this year, only half the number predicted by several research reports, including Morgan Stanley’s August forecast in which the US bank also spoke of a 10 per cent price decline by 2010.

Chris O’Donnell, chief executive of Nakheel, a government-owned developer, says it has the resources to cope as it slows work on a variety of projects, such as the Trump Tower on its landmark Palm Jumeirah island. He paints a rosy picture of the company’s first major refinancing, a $3.5bn Islamic bond, in November this year. Nakheel’s credit default swaps indicate that investors are more worried about Nakheel than other parts of Dubai Inc. “The world will be a totally different place [by November] and we don’t think there will be any refinance issues at that point,” says Mr O’Donnell.

With local banks reluctant to lend, financing Dubai’s property and infrastructure developments will remain its greatest challenge this year. “Possible access to federal [UAE] funding will drive how much Dubai can and cannot do to maintain growth,” says Jeffrey Culpepper, Middle East head of investment banking for Credit Suisse. “If you look at all the mega-projects announced, without federal funding and with the current dislocation in the global finance markets, some will be hard to finish on schedule.”

So Dubai’s ambitions may rest not only on the health of the global economy, and with it a revival of the oil price, but also on the attitude of global banks and capital markets. Dubai has spent three decades transforming itself into a global city; its future now depends on the world reciprocating this grand vision.

Dubai's Sheikh Zayed Road at night

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Filed under  //   Abu Dhabi   Chris O’Donnell   Dubai   Emaar Properties   Emirates   Mohammed Alabbar   Nakheel   Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum   United Arab Emirates  

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